If you're waiting for mortgage rates to fall before buying a house, there's a decent chance the number you're watching is out of date, and you're not alone in this.
A poll commissioned by Neighbors Bank — a Columbia, Mo., lender specializing in loans for first-time buyers and others the mortgage market tends to pass — surveyed 1,000 potential buyers. Most buyers couldn't say where rates stood while they waited. Only 35% could place the average 30-year rate in the right range, and 45% overshot.
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So a lot of buyers right now are sitting out the market because of a number they're not tracking. And it's a number Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and other forecasters don't expect to see again for years yet.
In the meantime, 72% of the buyers surveyed have put their searches on hold, and millennials have logged the longest waits at 14 months.
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Freddie Mac's weekly survey had the 30-year fixed at 2.65% in January 2021, and by October 2023 it hit 7.79%. It initially slid to 5.98% towards late February of this year, then turned around to 6.49% as of July 9, and 6.66% as of Aug. 27.
The forecasts don't bend much from there.
Fannie Mae's June housing forecast has the 30-year fixed averaging 6.4% through the rest of 2026, easing to 6.3% over 2027. The MBA's June Mortgage Finance Forecast, for its part, has it at 6.5% in the third and fourth quarters — and still at 6.5% through 2027. Analysts told U.S. News they see rates holding between 6% and 6.5% for the next three years, and the outlet reported that Fed officials' own June projections made a 2026 rate hike look likelier than a cut.
Still, 34% of the holdouts say they'd pull the trigger the day the rates hit their number.
Among buyers who have delayed, 41% already have regrets about it, saying they should have moved before rates or prices got worse. If they could rerun 2025, 17% say they'd have bought a house instead. Meanwhile, 40% say their regret goes back further, to the pandemic era, when the 30-year rate fell as low as 2.65%.
Waiting hasn't been free, either. Among all respondents, 49% said rising rent has left them less to save for a house and delayed their plans. And 67% think the homes they're shopping for cost more now than when they started.
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The report's advice begins with a reality check, since so many buyers had the current rate wrong.
"Before writing off this year, homebuyers should check where rates actually stand and what loan options are on the table, instead of holding out for a number that may be out of step with the market," writes Ashley Harris, the bank's director of homebuyer education, in the report.
Buying the rate down is another route. A buyer who pays for discount points at closing walks away with a permanently cheaper rate and a smaller monthly bill. Down payment assistance programs — some forgivable, some deferred — can shrink the upfront cash a buyer needs, the cost that 18% of holdouts said they're still saving toward. Neighbors Bank offers both options and specializes in first-time buyers, though, so it benefits when people stop waiting. Its rate history comes straight from Freddie Mac, and its read on the forecast matches Fannie Mae, the MBA and the analysts U.S. News surveyed.
LendingTree's experts don't expect 5% in 2026, and they don't see rates dropping below 6% anytime soon either. Even if rates ease later this year, they warn, rising home prices and competition could offset whatever a buyer saved by waiting.
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This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: 72% of homebuyers have paused their search waiting for lower mortgage rates — and 41% already regret it
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
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