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A look at the federal funds rate over the past 50 years: How has it changed?

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The Federal Reserve — the country's central bank — periodically adjusts its target rate to keep the economy running smoothly and consumer prices in check. When the federal funds rate moves up or down, so do the interest rates on bank accounts and loans.

In other words, changes in the Fed's rate impact how much your savings can grow and how much you pay to borrow money.

So how does today's federal funds rate compare to past years? Here's a look at historical Fed interest rates so you can better understand how your bottom line is affected.

The federal funds rate is set by the Federal Reserve and dictates what a bank can charge another bank for ultra-short-term loans (usually overnight) in order to meet reserve requirements. It's expressed as a range, and financial institutions can negotiate a specific rate between each other within that range.

The Fed's target rate also impacts the interest rates individual financial institutions set for financial products such as deposit accounts, bonds, loans, and credit cards.

Read more: How the Fed's rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

Historical Fed interest rate: How it's changed over 50 years

The federal funds rate soared in the early 1980s when inflation hit more than 13%, the highest level recorded. This marked the end of a macroeconomic period known as the "Great Inflation," which economists believe was brought on by Federal Reserve policies that led to an overgrowth in the supply of money.

In response, the Fed raised interest rates, and the federal funds rate reached more than 19%.

In the late 1990s and into the early 2000s, there was another major economic shift when the Fed began bringing the federal funds rate down. This move was fueled by the dot-com bubble burst — a period of economic instability when investors poured capital into internet-based companies, which led to an overvaluation of many of these start-ups. Unfortunately, not all of these companies were profitable, and the fallout of this bubble burst led to many bankruptcies and a recession.

Then, following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the Fed cut rates further due to widespread uncertainty and a slowdown in economic activity.

In 2007, the housing market crash prompted the Fed to once again lower its target rate to 2%. A series of rate cuts followed, eventually bringing the target range down to a range of 0%-0.25% — effectively zero — by December 2008.

As the economy recovered from the Great Recession, the Fed began slowly increasing rates again. But in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic rocked the U.S. economy and brought about challenges such as supply-chain issues, reduced economic activity, and high unemployment. In March 2020, the Fed once again slashed rates to a range of 0%-0.25%.

Read more: How to recession-proof your savings

Beginning in 2022, the Fed pivoted sharply as inflation surged to a 40-year high. It raised the rate aggressively through 2022 and 2023, eventually peaking at 5.25%–5.5%, the highest level in over two decades. By late 2024, however, inflation had eased, and the Fed began gradually cutting rates again.

The target rate remained steady at 4.25%–4.5% until September 2025, when the Fed finally cut its rate again by 25 basis points. It made another 25 bps cut in October, and another in December.

The Fed held rates steady for most of 2026. However, persistent inflation led to a rate hike of 25 basis points in September.

"Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.," the Fed said in a statement explaining the decision.

The target range now stands at 3.75%-4%.

What to expect from the Fed moving forward

The next Fed meeting is slated for October 27-28, 2026, when the Fed will decide whether or not to further adjust the federal funds rate.

Many experts expect the Fed to hike rates again this year. However, the CME Fedwatch tool predicts a nearly 100% chance that the federal funds rate will hold steady following the Fed's October meeting.

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Will the Fed cut or raise interest rates in 2026? We reached out to economic experts for their Fed rate predictions. Here's what they had to say.

Will interest rates continue dropping this year?

The Fed once again voted to hold the federal funds rate steady. Will interest rates begin dropping before the year is up?

Understanding the Fed's rate decisions: Do we want high or low interest rates​?

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can directly impact your wallet. So what's better: high or low interest rates?

Should you open a CD account before the Fed's next meeting?

Knowing how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions impact your interest earnings over time is key to making an informed decision about where to put your money.

What a Fed rate hike means for your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

Here's how the Fed's rate decision could impact savings products, various types of loans, and credit cards.

How are stocks impacted when the Fed doesn't change interest rates?

Here's what to expect and how to avoid adjusting your portfolio in response to future interest rates.

참고 자료Yahoo Finance

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