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Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA)'s race to amass vast sums of money to support its AI push led it to a recent $10.2 billion equity raise, drawing scrutiny from investors. The company issued 710 million shares at a discount price.
On September 7, Bernstein SocGen lowered its price target on Alibaba to $165 from $180 but maintained an Outperform rating on the stock. Bernstein highlighted concerns about the timing and optics of the capital raise.
For investors, the central question is whether Alibaba's AI investments can generate returns quickly enough to offset the dilution.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA)'s equity raise has drawn scrutiny because the company already had more than $30 billion in net cash. That massive cash stockpile is evidence that the company was not dependent on new capital to shore up its balance sheet. Rather, the proceeds from the latest equity raise are intended to support Alibaba's AI investment strategy, which is becoming more expensive yet urgent.
The investment case does not depend on Alibaba needing additional liquidity to survive. Instead, it depends on whether deploying additional capital into AI creates enough value to justify stock dilution.
The bears can point out that existing shareholders suffer dilution while Alibaba commits even more capital to investments where returns are not guaranteed. That concern is amplified by the company's latest results that revealed earnings pressure as AI outlays accelerate.
Bernstein built a datacenter model around Alibaba's existing Zhenwu 810E chip. From there, it estimated a 3-year payback period on capex. Channel feedback on the newer M890 chip, which entered commercial deployment in August, pointed to a shorter 2.5-year payback period.
The economics depend on continued demand for computing capacity as well as rising server rental prices. And Bernstein's discussions with key customers suggest the market remains tight. That, in turn, supports the assumption that Alibaba can keep its AI infrastructure heavily utilized.
The thesis is that AI demand increases computing requirements and tight capacity supports server pricing. Also, higher utilization accelerates infrastructure payback, and faster payback allows Alibaba to reinvest in additional AI capacity.
The caveat is that these are modeled payback periods, not yet proof of realized returns. The thesis therefore breaks if AI demand weakens or actual cash returns take longer than Bernstein expects.
Hedge fund positioning in Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) offers little evidence of a clear consensus. Inside Monkey's database shows the number of funds holding Alibaba declined to 97 in Q2 from 102 in Q1.
Fisher Asset Management, the largest common share holder, trimmed its stake by 1% to 5.1 million shares after cutting it 5% in the previous quarter. However, Discerene Group increased its position 4% to 2.7 million shares, and Citadel Investment Group raised its stake 39% to 2 million shares.
Short interest suggests skepticism remains, but bearish positioning is not extreme. As of August 14, roughly 42 million shares were sold short, representing 2% of the public float. That was up just 0.34% from the previous report.
Alibaba's equity raise creates a legitimate shareholder-dilution concern. Yet the financing decision could prove rational if AI infrastructure generates the 2.5–3-year payback Bernstein estimates. If those returns fail to materialize, the capital raise will look much harder to justify.
While we acknowledge the potential of BABA as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
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